Exporters lock in prices 30–60 days ahead. Signing too early in a rising market costs margin. Signing too late in a falling market loses deals. This module tells you which regime you are in right now.

DATA IMF shrimp spot price (FRED: PSHRIUSDM) × destination market premium × VAR-forecasted FX rate.
MODEL Brent Crude 14D ensemble forecast × 0.4× pass-through factor — a 10% oil move historically drives ~4% shrimp price change. Projected 14D and 30D market prices per destination.
SIGNAL WAIT = prices trending up, delay signing. CONTRACT NOW = prices falling, lock in today. NEUTRAL = trend insufficient to act on.

Currency weakness is a 3–6 week leading indicator of export volume surges. When the INR weakens, Indian exporters' USD-denominated costs fall — they become more competitive and ship more, before the price impact reaches the destination port.

DATA Live FRED FX rates: USD/INR (India), USD/BRL (Ecuador/Brazil), USD/EUR (EU buyer demand).
MODEL Change vs 30-day moving average. +3% or more = HIGH risk (currency weakness → competitive advantage → volume surge imminent). Negative change = cost pressure reducing export incentive.
SIGNAL HIGH = expect price pressure in 3–6 weeks on affected markets. MEDIUM = monitor closely. NORMAL = no unusual export pressure detected.

Exporters invoice in USD but pay costs in INR, VND, or BRL. A weakening local currency silently improves your margin — costs fall in USD terms without any change to the shrimp price.

DATA Live FRED FX rates vs calibrated baselines: INR baseline 83.0. Vietnam VND proxied via INR dynamics (strong historical correlation).
MODEL FX impact = current rate vs baseline. Margin impact = FX change × local cost share (India: 72% of costs in INR; Vietnam: 68% in VND). Ecuador is dollarised — zero FX exposure by definition.
SIGNAL HOLD USD = delay converting when local currency is weakening — you get more local currency per dollar later. CONVERT NOW = local currency strengthening, act before it rises further.

Port congestion adds 3–7 days to transit, triggering cold chain overage charges, pushing payment cycles out, and risking contract penalty clauses. Knowing congestion risk before booking freight saves real money.

DATA Seasonal congestion patterns calibrated against historical vessel waiting time data. Updated monthly.
MODEL Scores 1–10 per port per month based on seasonal demand cycles. Rotterdam and Felixstowe peak Q3–Q4. LA/LB peaks September–October (US retail pre-season). Singapore stable year-round.
SIGNAL 1–5 LOW = proceed normally. 6–7 MEDIUM = pre-book reefer slots now. 8–10 HIGH = consider alternative routing or delay 2–3 weeks. Future versions will integrate live AIS vessel traffic data for real-time scoring.

Shrimp aquaculture is acutely sensitive to water temperature. Thermal stress above threshold triggers pond mortality and stunted growth — reducing harvest volumes 10–16 weeks later. By the time this shows up as import volume data, it is too late to act.

DATA Live satellite SST from NOAA ERDDAP (jplMURSST41, 1km resolution, updated daily). ENSO Oceanic Niño Index from NOAA Climate Prediction Center (monthly).
REGIONS Ecuador Guayas coast (40% of global supply, optimal 23–29°C, 12-week market lag). India Andhra Pradesh (22% of supply, optimal 26–30°C, 14-week lag). Vietnam Mekong Delta (18% of supply, optimal 25–30°C, 13-week lag).
MODEL SST vs optimal thresholds → stress classification → estimated price impact with regional lag. ENSO ONI modifier: El Niño (ONI > +0.5) adds Ecuador flood and disease risk. La Niña (ONI < −0.5) adds India drought risk.
SIGNAL OPTIMAL = normal harvest expected. ELEVATED / COOL = monitor. THERMAL / COLD STRESS = material supply reduction likely, price uplift expected within stated lag window.

FDA Import Alerts place exporters on a "Detained Without Physical Examination" (DWPE) list. Any shipment from a listed firm is automatically held — typically 30 days — at the importer's cost. EU RASFF operates equivalently. The October 2025 Indonesia IA-99-52 added Cesium-137 radiation testing for Java and Lampung-origin product — a new category of risk.

DATA Live FDA openFDA enforcement API (shrimp recalls and detentions, updated weekly). FDA import alert pages scraped for active Red List firm counts. Confirmed alert status as of March 2026.
MODEL Regulatory heat (1–10) = base alert score + live enforcement boost (0.5× per active action) + import alert page density. Port inspection intensity from FDA OASIS historical sampling rates.
SIGNAL 1–4 = standard routing, low risk. 5–6 = pre-certify and test before shipping. 7–10 = divert from US/EU — route via Middle East or UK. Indonesia score 9: avoid US routing for Java/Lampung product entirely.